By: Monica Medina and Miro Korenha
Friday, August 24, 2018 Sign Up for Our Daily Planet
A Warm and Wet Winter Ahead
For all you East Coasters out there who are still traumatized by last year’s “bomb cyclone” you can take solace because the Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting warmer temperatures for much of the country. The Old Farmer’s Almanac which has been published since 1792 and has made advanced forecasts for the seasons sums up the 2018-2019 winter weather as “warm and wet.”
“This winter, we expect to see above-normal temperatures almost everywhere in the United States, except in the Southwest, where we’re predicting a colder-than-normal season,” wrote the team behind the almanac. “Our milder-than-normal forecast is due to a decrease in solar activity and the expected arrival of a weak El Niño, which will prevent cold air masses from lingering in the North.” As Mother Nature Network described, unlike the Farmers’ Almanac, which famously predicts seasonal weather based on sunspot activity, tidal action, planetary position and other “top secret mathematical and astronomical formulas,” the Old Farmer’s Almanac leans a bit more on the side of science for its forecasts. While the exact formula is still secret, much of it is based on solar activity, prevailing weather patterns and meteorology.
Why This Matters: While the Old Farmer’s Almanac claims an accuracy rate of 80%, meteorologists and science journalists are quick to encourage people to take these long-range predictions with a huge grain of salt. But even a recent report by the National Weather Service estimated good odds for above-average temperatures in the Southwest and Northeast for the 2018-2019 winter.
Abycats' Thoughts 